On 1 July Mexico will hold a general election. This blog will cover the vote live from inside the country
If the polling situation remains the same then the old political beast, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), will get their man back into the hot-seat on 1 July. There is hardly any electoral evidence or think-tank forecasting to suggest that the presidential landscape will undergo an upheaval (and it would have to be a breath-taking shift) that will shove the favourite, the PRI’s Enrique Peña Nieto, off course. As the polls stand, and as they have stood for a long time, the National Action Party (PAN) incumbent Felipe Calderón has low approval ratings (and cannot stand for a second term under the constitution anyway) and Enrique Peña Nieto is racing ahead in first place.
There are three other candidates for the top job but they are floundering away well below Mr Peña Nieto. He is closing in on securing 50% of the votes, putting him securely into the head of state’s residence, Los Pinos, later this year. Pretty much tied for second place are the PAN’s Josefina Vázquez Mota and the Party of the Democratic Revolution’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador (who interchange second and third place and both are on about 25%). López Obrador was the runner-up last time round, in 2006, to Calderón, (by an incredibly small margin, and one which he disputed for months afterwards, camping out in the capital and rallying his supporters). Back then it was the old opposition, the PRD and the PAN, slugging it out for the presidency, having finally ditched the PRI from the country’s leadership in 2000 after 70 years of running Mexico as a one-party state through a mix of corruption, fiddling results and a sprinkling of rhetoric.
But it seems that the nation is looking backwards for its next step forwards. The PRI may have been missing from the top job for the last twelve years but they have always been there or thereabouts in Congress. They have a healthy majority in the Cámara de Diputados lower house heading into the 1 July vote. After two successive presidencies of the conservative PAN, it seems the electorate is ready for a change. And they do not want the PRD man to be the new jefe de estado. They want the old guys back.
Has the PRI changed? Does it even matter? Josefina Vázquez Mota has not been able to secure the votes of women happy at the chance to give their country una presidenta. That would certainly be a sign of progress, shaking the old scourge of machismo and following many neighbours with female leaders. In fact, it is Peña Nieto who has the lead in women voters, many of whom openly admit being seduced by his dashing good looks rather than his policies.
Finally, there is the PANAL candidate, Gabriel Quadri de la Torre. He knows what his problem is: particracy. He has openly acknowledged his is fighting an uphill contest against the three big parties that tend to gobble up all the votes. He presents himself as a fresh choice for an embattled country but he is wobbling around at the bottom of the polls. Maybe he is too much of an unknown, risky punt for the voters. But then even the liberal PRD are finding it tough electioneering, not to mention former cabinet minister Josefina Vázquez Mota, tainted by links to criticised President Calderón. Maybe the only option then is to go back to what you know: a handsome young man from an old, somewhat less clean-shaven party.