Coral politics

The Maldives have elected a new president – after three previous attempts failed

How many elections does it take to choose a president in the Maldives? Four, apparently, after a destabilising campaign of annulled ballots, cancelled votes and political grand-standing from all sides. On Saturday 16 the final election produced a result that has been accepted by the victors and the defeated and can hopefully bring some calm back to the tiny country after 18 months of political unrest. Abdulla Yameen is the new man in charge but his empowerment comes after a nervy period dating back to February 2012 when the Maldives’ first democratically-elected leader, Mohammed Nasheed, stepped down after street protests followed the sacking of a top judge.

The upheaval was not officially seen as a coup, but the resulting election that culminated in the vote last week was a catalogue of strange electoral management:

7 September: Nasheed, who was imprisoned during the one-party rule that ended in 2008, won this vote with 45%, but that result was scrapped by the Supreme Court over voter list irregularities.

9 November: A re-run of the first go. This time around, Mr Nasheed actually increased his share of the vote from 45% to 47% but it was not enough for an outright victory.

10 November: A run-off election called for this day was again cancelled by the Supreme Court, which is dominated by judges from the 1978-2008 one-party regime.

16 November: The run-off was set for this date and, although Mr Nasheed won the first-round, Abdulla Yameen secured 51.6% of the votes in the second-round ballot and thus landed the presidency.

Although Yameen is new to the hot-seat he comes from a dynasty that is infamously linked to the Maldivian presidency. His half-brother Maumoon Abdul Gayoom ruled the country for 30 years from 1978 in what has been criticised as a ‘dictatorial manner’ by rights groups. So is this a step backwards for the Asian archipelago? That is certainly the point of view that the defeated Nasheed takes, who fears sharia law is creeping into the Muslim nation and that the religious conservatism of the old guard could manifest itself again through the new leader. For his part, Yameen has pledged to get to work on trying to tackle the country’s high debt and lack of foreign currency reserves. Revised and reinvigorated economic policy would be welcome, but the new president would also like to see the death penalty implemented, a measure that is not such good news.

The mishandled lead-up to Saturday’s vote did not go unnoticed on the international stage. The Commonwealth threw the Maldives out of its disciplinary panel and the European Union hinted at a reaction if there was further unrest spilling out from another undecided or contested result. The other international side to the Maldives is its tourism sector, and nearly a million holidaymakers from across the world flew in last year.

Exactly how many honeymooning couples were aware or would have wanted to be aware of the political unrest is uncertain. What is undeniable is that their presence on the coral-fringed white-sand beaches and in the clear, green Indian Ocean waves is of the utmost importance to Malé. Tourism made up 38% of government revenue in 2012.

Abdulla got frosty with the EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton over her warnings, saying “We will decide our own affairs”. That may be true, but while Western powers might seem a nuisance with their cautioning and judgements, their nationals are more than happy to jet in for a spot of secluded snorkelling off one of the country’s beautiful atolls. Mr Nasheed has respected the result, saying “we have the opportunity to show citizens how an opposition party that is loyal to the state works”. Mr Abdulla must provide clear, focused respect on the path ahead, and lashing out at the foreign powers whose people come up with a vital portion of his government’s coffers is not the best way to begin.

The fine line between defence and politics

On Monday 18 October the Chinese vice-president, Xi Jinping, was promoted to second-in-command of his country’s Central Military Commission, the government body which controls the 2.2 million-strong army. It is a posting which is undoubtedly seen as a stepping-stone to the presidency in 2013 in a nation where the military and political promotions go hand-in-hand.

The next day, 5000 miles away in London, the coalition government led by the Conservatives announced wide-ranging defence budget cuts. The run-up to the publication of the ‘Strategic Defence Review’ was dominated by criticism from the opposition Labour party, the public, soldiers, sailors and airmen alike. Even the Defence Secretary himself was found to have been railing against the cuts he was asked to find by George Osborne, the British Chancellor. The outcome of the report has been a source of contention and paradoxy: the Royal Navy’s flagship, HMS Ark Royal, is to be retired four years earlier than planned but two new aircraft carriers will be built. However, there will be no British planes for use on the ships for 9 years. In addition to the naval cuts, the number of tanks and artillery pieces will be slashed by 40% and up to 20,000 service jobs will be at risk.

The government has stressed that a streamlining of a mismanaged and economically wasteful budget was imperative but there is no doubt that the British military standing in the world will be severely reduced, and any future conflicts will probably be impossible without allies’ aid.

But this notion does not apply to the UK alone. The Falklands War in 1982 was a purely British-Argentine affair, although each combatant did receive oral backing, Argentina from some fellow South Americans and Spain, and the UK from the US and Chile. Times have advanced though and if tensions rise once more in the South Atlantic, then Argentina would be able to call on direct military support from friends on the continent, notably Hugo Chavez’ Venezuela. Britain would be unable to respond as it did in 1982 and would have to seek out allies of its own.

The current Argentine president, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, reshone the spotlight on Las Malvinas last weekend through Twitter when she labelled British soldiers carrying out exercises on East Falkland island ‘pirates’. Chavez also joined in online, recalling for the return of the archipelago to Argentina.

Looking further north, there is a different type of military deployment occurring in Colombia and Mexico. Both countries have large-scale deployment internally, as presidents Santos and Calderon look to conquer the drugs gangs. Mexico has sent the greatest number of soldiers to the frontline, and has also increased the remit of the navy and its marines, who are regularly involved in operations inland, not just in coastal areas. The gangsters are ingenious, and only the armed forces have the firepower to engage with the gangs, and the know-how to intercept seaborne missions and underwater deliveries via miniature submarines, although these conflicts have led to a massive death toll over the last four years, with more than 28,000 killed.

Somalia and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are the two African countries which are consistently in the current military news regarding Africa. Somalia hits the headlines for the ongoing unrest and firefights between the Al-Shabab militia and government forces, with the armed piracy situation adding to the problem. And the DRC is in the news for the gross abuses of villagers carried out by the army. The African Union (AU) provides peacekeeping elements to both these nations, among others, and it is in Africa where we see this type of military sanctioning and control the most in the current climate.

Looking back across the Indian Ocean, Burma has been under the control of a military regime for the past 22 years, and any attempts to promote democracy are dealt a fierce rebuke. Upcoming elections will be closed to outside observers, disallowing direct comment on the campaigns and results. Indeed, as Indian Nobel economics laureate Amartya Sen remarked on Thursday 21 October, only Burma’s closest allies, (which he cited as India, China and Thailand), have enough sway within the governing junta to be able to argue for democracy or promote greater transparency regarding human rights. Burma has an omnipotent role for the military in daily life in the country, but it is not the only Asian country to place such great value on the standing of the armed forces.

Last week, North Korea’s rulers named the present leader Kim Jong-il’s son Kim Jong-un as a general, and the foreign media (which was allowed within the borders, albeit under tight monitoring) was quick to point out the proximity of military high-command to political office. It certainly seems that Kim Jong-un, the dictator’s youngest son, will replace his father as the head of the country, but such a transition would have been extremely difficult without first giving him a prominent military role.

South Korea has US backing but has been keen to extend the diplomatic arm in recent months, refusing heavy-handed retaliative action after its neighbours sunk a warship in May. With Australia and New Zealand playing minor roles in Afghanistan, there remains the possibility that they could find themselves getting more and more involved with the nations to their north in the future.